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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."